LaLiga · 2015/2016
Ask a questionSettled
Barcelona are champions
Barcelona finish on 91 points, 1 clear of Real Madrid.
What is being decided1 · 1 point between Rayo Vallecano and safety
The title, the European places, and the fight at the bottom.
Running hot, and living on luck4 · Atlético Madrid are 18.0 points ahead of their xG
Runs worth naming, and the clubs whose results have drifted from their underlying numbers.
Overperforming
Atlético Madrid are 18.0 points ahead of their xG
88 points from an expected 70.0. That gap is finishing and fine margins rather than chance creation, and it is the kind of lead that historically shrinks rather than holds.
Points88Expected70.0xG for53.0Underperforming
Sevilla are 9.9 points short of their xG
52 points from an expected 61.9. The chances are being created; they are not being taken. On the same underlying numbers this is the profile that tends to improve.
Points52Expected61.9xG for60.9Form
Barcelona have won 5 of their last 5
1st on 91 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition1stForm
Real Madrid have won 5 of their last 5
2nd on 90 points, and the run has taken them there.
FormW W W W WPosition2nd
The people who decide it4 · Luis Suárez
Players in form, and the dugouts under pressure.
Player
Luis Suárez
40 goals and 15 assists for Barcelona, 1.5 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 12.4.
Goals40Assists15Per 901.5Player
Gareth Bale
19 goals and 10 assists for Real Madrid, 1.5 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 10.0.
Goals19Assists10Per 901.5Player
Lionel Messi
26 goals and 15 assists for Barcelona, 1.3 involvements per 90. Ahead of their expected goals by 4.7.
Goals26Assists15Per 901.3Dugout
Unai Emery Etxegoien is 9.9 points short of the performances
Sevilla sit 7th on 52, where the underlying numbers argue for 61.9. That gap usually closes; it is not a prediction about anyone's job.
Points52Expected61.9
These are assembled, not written. Every sentence is built from numbers in the loaded season — the metrics under each story are the ones it was derived from — so a claim here can be checked rather than trusted. Nothing on this page is generated prose.