Liga MX · Matchweek 15
CF América
CFA
Toluca
TOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
América32%
Draw27%
Toluca41%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.52
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession59%
47%Territory42%
37%From set plays19%
0.06Chance quality0.15
7.2%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for América, 3 for Toluca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
América
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.