Ligue 2 · Matchweek 9
Guingamp
GUI
Pau
PAU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Guingamp51%
Draw22%
Pau27%
Expected goals
2.11 – 1.53
Over 2.5
69%
Both to score
69%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–16.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession41%
30%Territory27%
30%From set plays34%
0.16Chance quality0.13
6.8%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Guingamp, 3 for Pau. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.