Premier League · Matchweek 9
Manchester City
MCI
Brighton & Hove Albion
BHA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man City57%
Draw22%
Brighton21%
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.22
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–08.0%
- 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
65%Possession70%
44%Territory44%
24%From set plays29%
0.15Chance quality0.11
3.9%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man City, 3 for Brighton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.