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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Allsvenskan · Matchweek 29

AIK

AIK

Degerfors

DEG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

AIK45%
Draw27%
Degerfors28%

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.18

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.1%
  • 1–010.7%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.9%
  • 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Degerfors get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

55%Possession49%
30%Territory40%
7%From set plays26%
0.13Chance quality0.07
4.5%Directness6.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for AIK, 3 for Degerfors. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 168 matches, not the full season.