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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Allsvenskan · Matchweek 26

Degerfors

DEG

Västerås SK

VST

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Degerfors38%
Draw30%
Västerås SK33%

Expected goals

1.26 – 1.17

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 1–011.4%
  • 0–110.4%
  • 0–010.2%
  • 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession48%
40%Territory41%
26%From set plays38%
0.07Chance quality0.09
6.5%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Degerfors, 3 for Västerås SK. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 168 matches, not the full season.