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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Primera División · Clausura - Round 13

Vélez Sarsfield

VLE

Gimnasia Mendoza

GIM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Vélez Sarsfield49%
Draw25%
Gimnasia Mendoza26%

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.20

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 2–07.7%
  • 0–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

47%Possession51%
35%Territory40%
41%From set plays24%
0.12Chance quality0.07
6.0%Directness6.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Vélez Sarsfield, 3 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 36 of 390 matches, not the full season.