Liga MX · Matchweek 14
León
LEN
Toluca
TOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
León31%
Draw28%
Toluca41%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.44
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Toluca will have the ball; León will not mind.
50%Possession59%
40%Territory42%
12%From set plays19%
0.10Chance quality0.15
5.5%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for León, 3 for Toluca. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.