Liga MX · Matchweek 12
Toluca
TOL
Atlético de San Luis
ATT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toluca63%
Draw22%
San Luis15%
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.0%
- 2–011.1%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Toluca will have the ball; San Luis will not mind.
59%Possession46%
42%Territory33%
19%From set plays10%
0.15Chance quality0.09
5.7%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toluca, 3 for San Luis. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 70 matches, not the full season.