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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 19

Başakşehir

BAA

Trabzonspor

TRA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Başakşehir32%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor43%

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.73

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.6%
  • 1–28.9%
  • 2–17.5%
  • 0–17.4%
  • 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

56%Possession60%
36%Territory40%
15%From set plays27%
0.10Chance quality0.11
8.3%Directness6.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Başakşehir, 3 for Trabzonspor. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.