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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Süper Lig · Matchweek 17

Erzurumspor FK

ERZ

Trabzonspor

TRA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Erzurumspor FK21%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor54%

Expected goals

0.97 – 1.68

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–112.4%
  • 1–111.5%
  • 1–29.7%
  • 0–29.7%
  • 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

44%Possession49%
37%Territory35%
8%From set plays10%
0.12Chance quality0.15
5.5%Directness6.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Erzurumspor FK, 3 for Trabzonspor. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 90 matches, not the full season.