Süper Lig · Matchweek 15
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Trabzonspor
TRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fenerbahçe46%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor29%
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.39
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession49%
41%Territory35%
21%From set plays10%
0.10Chance quality0.15
6.0%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fenerbahçe, 3 for Trabzonspor. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 89 matches, not the full season.