Süper Lig · Matchweek 15
Fenerbahçe
FEN
Trabzonspor
TRA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fenerbahçe53%
Draw24%
Trabzonspor23%
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.15
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.9%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–16.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession60%
35%Territory40%
28%From set plays27%
0.09Chance quality0.11
5.7%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fenerbahçe, 3 for Trabzonspor. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.