Bundesliga · Matchweek 24
Werder Bremen
SVW
Mainz 05
MAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Werder Bremen43%
Draw27%
Mainz30%
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.22
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession51%
34%Territory43%
24%From set plays11%
0.14Chance quality0.14
5.6%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Werder Bremen, 3 for Mainz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.