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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 23

Paderborn

PAD

Werder Bremen

SVW

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Paderborn30%
Draw29%
Werder Bremen41%

Expected goals

1.09 – 1.31

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 0–112.2%
  • 0–010.3%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 1–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Paderborn get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession49%
38%Territory34%
64%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.14
7.0%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paderborn, 3 for Werder Bremen. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.