Bundesliga · Matchweek 22
Werder Bremen
SVW
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Werder Bremen35%
Draw29%
Dortmund36%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.23
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–09.9%
- 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession55%
34%Territory41%
24%From set plays32%
0.14Chance quality0.08
5.6%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Werder Bremen, 3 for Dortmund. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.