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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

Augsburg

AUG

Werder Bremen

SVW

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Augsburg40%
Draw26%
Werder Bremen34%

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.43

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.5%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 1–08.3%
  • 1–27.9%
  • 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Augsburg will have the ball; Werder Bremen will not mind.

59%Possession49%
45%Territory34%
31%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.14
3.9%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Augsburg, 3 for Werder Bremen. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.