Bundesliga · Matchweek 20
Werder Bremen
SVW
1. FC Köln
FCK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Werder Bremen44%
Draw29%
Köln27%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.02
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession56%
34%Territory42%
24%From set plays37%
0.14Chance quality0.09
5.6%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Werder Bremen, 3 for Köln. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Köln
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.