Bundesliga · Matchweek 18
Werder Bremen
SVW
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Werder Bremen45%
Draw28%
Freiburg28%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.12
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.6%
- 0–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession48%
34%Territory34%
24%From set plays32%
0.14Chance quality0.10
5.6%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Werder Bremen, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.