Bundesliga · Matchweek 18
Werder Bremen
SVW
Freiburg
FRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Werder Bremen26%
Draw30%
Freiburg44%
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.31
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.5%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–28.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Freiburg will have the ball; Werder Bremen will not mind.
43%Possession52%
34%Territory43%
32%From set plays23%
0.07Chance quality0.11
5.9%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Werder Bremen, 3 for Freiburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.