Bundesliga · Matchweek 17
Werder Bremen
SVW
Elversberg
ELV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Werder Bremen42%
Draw28%
Elversberg30%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.16
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–08.9%
- 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Werder Bremen get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
43%Possession37%
34%Territory24%
32%From set plays3%
0.07Chance quality0.16
5.9%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Werder Bremen, 3 for Elversberg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.