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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

Werder Bremen

SVW

Elversberg

ELV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Werder Bremen56%
Draw23%
Elversberg21%

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.13

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.3%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 1–09.7%
  • 2–08.7%
  • 3–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession46%
34%Territory27%
24%From set plays25%
0.14Chance quality0.14
5.6%Directness5.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Werder Bremen, 3 for Elversberg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.