Bundesliga · Matchweek 15
Werder Bremen
SVW
Union Berlin
UNI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Werder Bremen40%
Draw30%
Union Berlin31%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.10
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–010.6%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Union Berlin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
43%Possession50%
34%Territory34%
32%From set plays70%
0.07Chance quality0.09
5.9%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Werder Bremen, 3 for Union Berlin. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.