Bundesliga · Matchweek 13
Werder Bremen
SVW
Bayer Leverkusen
LEV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Werder Bremen44%
Draw26%
Leverkusen30%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.31
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–27.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession57%
34%Territory41%
24%From set plays21%
0.14Chance quality0.09
5.6%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Werder Bremen, 3 for Leverkusen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Leverkusen
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 72 matches, not the full season.