Bundesliga · Matchweek 11
Werder Bremen
SVW
Borussia Mönchengladbach
BMG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Werder Bremen42%
Draw30%
M'gladbach28%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.04
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession48%
34%Territory37%
32%From set plays40%
0.07Chance quality0.07
5.9%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Werder Bremen, 3 for M'gladbach. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
M'gladbach
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.