Bundesliga · Matchweek 10
Werder Bremen
SVW
Hamburger SV
HAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Werder Bremen46%
Draw29%
Hamburger SV25%
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.94
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession45%
34%Territory33%
32%From set plays20%
0.07Chance quality0.08
5.9%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Werder Bremen, 3 for Hamburger SV. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hamburger SV
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.