Bundesliga · Matchweek 7
Mainz 05
MAI
Werder Bremen
SVW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mainz52%
Draw27%
Werder Bremen21%
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.92
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.8%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–19.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession43%
45%Territory34%
25%From set plays32%
0.11Chance quality0.07
5.4%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mainz, 3 for Werder Bremen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.