Bundesliga · Matchweek 5
Borussia Dortmund
DOR
Werder Bremen
SVW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dortmund64%
Draw23%
Werder Bremen13%
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.70
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
43%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.3%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Werder Bremen get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession43%
37%Territory34%
10%From set plays32%
0.13Chance quality0.07
4.7%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dortmund, 3 for Werder Bremen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 27 matches, not the full season.