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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 24

Real Madrid

RMA

Athletic Club

ATH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Real Madrid63%
Draw22%
Athletic Club15%

Expected goals

1.99 – 0.89

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–011.8%
  • 2–011.1%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 1–19.9%
  • 3–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession56%
37%Territory44%
5%From set plays18%
0.17Chance quality0.12
7.0%Directness6.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Real Madrid, 4 for Athletic Club. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.