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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 23

Athletic Club

ATH

Osasuna

OSA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Athletic Club40%
Draw30%
Osasuna30%

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.08

Over 2.5

41%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.2%
  • 1–012.4%
  • 0–010.8%
  • 0–110.3%
  • 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

56%Possession50%
44%Territory31%
18%From set plays51%
0.12Chance quality0.12
6.4%Directness9.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Athletic Club, 2 for Osasuna. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.