LaLiga · Matchweek 19
Athletic Club
ATH
Villarreal
VIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Athletic Club32%
Draw31%
Villarreal37%
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.18
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.3%
- 0–011.8%
- 1–011.3%
- 1–27.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession61%
44%Territory49%
18%From set plays16%
0.12Chance quality0.09
6.4%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Athletic Club, 3 for Villarreal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 109 matches, not the full season.