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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 19

Athletic Club

ATH

Villarreal

VIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Athletic Club40%
Draw27%
Villarreal33%

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.34

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 1–09.2%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 0–18.2%
  • 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Villarreal will have the ball; Athletic Club will not mind.

50%Possession66%
37%Territory53%
17%From set plays29%
0.13Chance quality0.13
4.3%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Athletic Club, 4 for Villarreal. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.