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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 18

Racing Santander

RAC

Athletic Club

ATH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Racing Santander25%
Draw25%
Athletic Club50%

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.75

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.1%
  • 1–29.6%
  • 0–19.6%
  • 0–27.7%
  • 2–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession50%
30%Territory37%
20%From set plays17%
0.19Chance quality0.13
3.4%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Racing Santander, 3 for Athletic Club. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.