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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 17

Athletic Club

ATH

Real Betis

BET

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Athletic Club45%
Draw28%
Real Betis27%

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.10

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 1–011.6%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 0–08.6%
  • 0–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

56%Possession49%
44%Territory44%
18%From set plays24%
0.12Chance quality0.12
6.4%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Athletic Club, 3 for Real Betis. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.