LaLiga · Matchweek 14
Málaga
MLA
Athletic Club
ATH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Málaga21%
Draw27%
Athletic Club52%
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.58
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.0%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Málaga get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession50%
37%Territory37%
39%From set plays17%
0.09Chance quality0.13
4.4%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Málaga, 3 for Athletic Club. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.