LaLiga · Matchweek 14
Málaga
MLA
Athletic Club
ATH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Málaga22%
Draw28%
Athletic Club50%
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.50
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.6%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–09.8%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–29.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Athletic Club will have the ball; Málaga will not mind.
45%Possession56%
36%Territory44%
6%From set plays18%
0.09Chance quality0.12
3.5%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Málaga, 4 for Athletic Club. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 108 matches, not the full season.