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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 13

Athletic Club

ATH

Espanyol

ESP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Athletic Club54%
Draw28%
Espanyol18%

Expected goals

1.47 – 0.77

Over 2.5

39%

Both to score

42%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–016.1%
  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–011.7%
  • 2–011.1%
  • 2–19.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Athletic Club will have the ball; Espanyol will not mind.

56%Possession37%
44%Territory30%
18%From set plays50%
0.12Chance quality0.05
6.4%Directness7.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Athletic Club, 3 for Espanyol. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 109 matches, not the full season.