LaLiga · Matchweek 13
Athletic Club
ATH
Espanyol
ESP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Athletic Club47%
Draw28%
Espanyol25%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.03
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession47%
37%Territory36%
17%From set plays22%
0.13Chance quality0.12
4.3%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Athletic Club, 4 for Espanyol. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.