LaLiga · Matchweek 12
Osasuna
OSA
Athletic Club
ATH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Osasuna30%
Draw29%
Athletic Club41%
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.33
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.8%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–28.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession50%
35%Territory37%
28%From set plays17%
0.16Chance quality0.13
8.5%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Osasuna, 3 for Athletic Club. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Osasuna
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.