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LaLiga · Matchweek 12

Osasuna

OSA

Athletic Club

ATH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Osasuna30%
Draw29%
Athletic Club41%

Expected goals

1.12 – 1.33

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1113.0%
  • 0111.8%
  • 009.8%
  • 109.7%
  • 128.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

47%Possession50%
35%Territory37%
28%From set plays17%
0.16Chance quality0.13
8.5%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Osasuna, 3 for Athletic Club. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.