LaLiga · Matchweek 11
Real Betis
BET
Málaga
MLA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Real Betis65%
Draw20%
Málaga14%
Expected goals
2.11 – 0.91
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.9%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession50%
45%Territory37%
36%From set plays39%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.0%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Real Betis, 4 for Málaga.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.