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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

LaLiga · Matchweek 9

Valencia

VAL

Athletic Club

ATH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Valencia27%
Draw29%
Athletic Club44%

Expected goals

1.02 – 1.35

Over 2.5

42%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.9%
  • 0–112.9%
  • 0–010.6%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 1–28.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession50%
31%Territory37%
13%From set plays17%
0.11Chance quality0.13
4.8%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Valencia, 3 for Athletic Club. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 32 of 59 matches, not the full season.