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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 22

Salzburg

SAL

Grazer AK

GRA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Salzburg52%
Draw26%
Grazer AK22%

Expected goals

1.60 – 0.98

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–012.7%
  • 1–111.9%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 2–09.4%
  • 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

63%Possession54%
44%Territory47%
4%From set plays48%
0.13Chance quality0.06
3.8%Directness7.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Salzburg, 2 for Grazer AK. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.