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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 19

Hartberg

HAR

Salzburg

SAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hartberg32%
Draw27%
Salzburg41%

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.51

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–19.5%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 1–08.1%
  • 2–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

38%Possession63%
24%Territory44%
57%From set plays4%
0.17Chance quality0.13
7.0%Directness3.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Hartberg, 3 for Salzburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.