Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 19
Hartberg
HAR
Salzburg
SAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Hartberg29%
Draw27%
Salzburg44%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.56
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.7%
- 2–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession60%
35%Territory36%
13%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.17
7.9%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hartberg, 3 for Salzburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Hartberg
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 66 matches, not the full season.