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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

Austria Lustenau

AUT

Salzburg

SAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Austria Lustenau26%
Draw26%
Salzburg48%

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.66

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.5%
  • 0–110.0%
  • 1–29.5%
  • 0–27.6%
  • 1–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

45%Possession63%
33%Territory44%
14%From set plays4%
0.11Chance quality0.13
7.9%Directness3.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Austria Lustenau, 3 for Salzburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.