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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 11

Salzburg

SAL

Austria Lustenau

AUT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Salzburg60%
Draw22%
Austria Lustenau17%

Expected goals

1.98 – 1.01

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–010.6%
  • 1–110.1%
  • 2–110.0%
  • 2–09.8%
  • 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

63%Possession45%
44%Territory33%
4%From set plays14%
0.13Chance quality0.11
3.8%Directness7.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Salzburg, 2 for Austria Lustenau. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.