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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 8

Grazer AK

GRA

Salzburg

SAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Grazer AK31%
Draw29%
Salzburg40%

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.34

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.9%
  • 0–111.3%
  • 1–09.6%
  • 0–09.4%
  • 1–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

54%Possession63%
47%Territory44%
48%From set plays4%
0.06Chance quality0.13
7.7%Directness3.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Grazer AK, 3 for Salzburg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.