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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Austrian Bundesliga · Matchweek 7

Salzburg

SAL

Sturm Graz

STU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Salzburg53%
Draw24%
Sturm Graz23%

Expected goals

1.86 – 1.18

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.6%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 2–08.2%
  • 3–16.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

63%Possession40%
44%Territory34%
4%From set plays29%
0.13Chance quality0.15
3.8%Directness8.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Salzburg, 2 for Sturm Graz. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 15 of 36 matches, not the full season.