League Two · Matchweek 14
Grimsby Town
GRI
York City
YOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Grimsby53%
Draw23%
York City24%
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.34
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.1%
- 2–26.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession64%
36%Territory33%
26%From set plays29%
0.15Chance quality0.12
8.6%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Grimsby, 3 for York City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.