League Two · Matchweek 14
Colchester United
COL
Walsall
WAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Colchester38%
Draw29%
Walsall34%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.24
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–08.9%
- 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession57%
34%Territory34%
30%From set plays35%
0.08Chance quality0.08
5.8%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Colchester, 3 for Walsall. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.