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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League Two · Matchweek 13

Northampton Town

NOR

Colchester United

COL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Northampton27%
Draw29%
Colchester44%

Expected goals

1.02 – 1.37

Over 2.5

42%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–112.9%
  • 1–112.9%
  • 0–010.3%
  • 1–09.3%
  • 1–28.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Northampton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

47%Possession52%
27%Territory34%
49%From set plays30%
0.07Chance quality0.08
3.8%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Northampton, 4 for Colchester.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 72 matches, not the full season.