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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League One · Matchweek 19

Notts County

NOT

Plymouth Argyle

PLY

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Notts County32%
Draw28%
Plymouth40%

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.42

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 0–110.1%
  • 1–08.8%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

39%Possession42%
38%Territory33%
14%From set plays42%
0.09Chance quality0.12
5.7%Directness8.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Notts County, 2 for Plymouth. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 155 matches, not the full season.