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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

League One · Matchweek 15

Doncaster Rovers

DON

Leyton Orient

LEY

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Doncaster48%
Draw26%
Leyton Orient26%

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.19

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 1–010.2%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 2–07.7%
  • 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

57%Possession54%
36%Territory34%
34%From set plays38%
0.12Chance quality0.08
6.7%Directness3.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Doncaster, 3 for Leyton Orient. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.