League One · Matchweek 13
Cambridge United
CAM
Plymouth Argyle
PLY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cambridge29%
Draw25%
Plymouth46%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.69
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession39%
35%Territory44%
26%From set plays31%
0.12Chance quality0.12
7.5%Directness9.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cambridge, 3 for Plymouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.