League One · Matchweek 12
Stevenage
STE
Plymouth Argyle
PLY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Stevenage40%
Draw28%
Plymouth31%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.19
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–08.9%
- 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
38%Possession39%
37%Territory44%
24%From set plays31%
0.13Chance quality0.12
9.6%Directness9.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Stevenage, 3 for Plymouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.