League One · Matchweek 10
Plymouth Argyle
PLY
AFC Wimbledon
AFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Plymouth56%
Draw24%
Wimbledon20%
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.03
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.1%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession46%
44%Territory37%
31%From set plays44%
0.12Chance quality0.10
9.0%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Plymouth, 5 for Wimbledon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.