League One · Matchweek 8
Plymouth Argyle
PLY
Burton Albion
BUR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Plymouth51%
Draw25%
Burton24%
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.14
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Burton will have the ball; Plymouth will not mind.
39%Possession47%
44%Territory34%
31%From set plays23%
0.12Chance quality0.10
9.0%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Plymouth, 3 for Burton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 40 of 72 matches, not the full season.